Preliminary Assessment of Federal Budget Execution for January–February 2026

The dynamics of revenue collection and expenditure financing during January–February 2026 indicate that federal budget execution is in line with the structural deficit targets approved in the budget law.

According to the preliminary assessment, federal budget revenues for January–February 2026 amounted to 4,767 billion rubles [footnote 2], which is 10.8% below the level recorded in the corresponding period of 2025. At the same time, key non-oil-and-gas revenues show positive year-on-year dynamics, both for the federal budget (+4% y/y) and for the broader budget system (+4% y/y).

- Non-oil-and-gas revenues of the federal budget totaled 3,942 billion rubles, an increase of 4.1% y/y. - Oil-and-gas revenues totaled 826 billion rubles, which is lower than the same period of the prior year (–47.1% y/y) and below their baseline level for January–February of the current year, primarily due to declining oil prices. Accordingly, and in line with the "fiscal rule" [Russia's fiscal rule mechanism that accumulates excess oil-and-gas revenues during periods of favorable prices and draws on NWF reserves when revenues fall short], National Wealth Fund (NWF) [Russia's sovereign wealth fund] resources equal to the shortfall in oil-and-gas revenues were used to finance the federal budget deficit.

The accumulation of additional oil-and-gas revenues during periods of favorable price conditions, and the use of NWF funds to cover oil-and-gas revenue shortfalls in accordance with the fiscal rule parameters, ensures the resilience of the budget system against fluctuations in oil-and-gas revenue intake.

According to the preliminary assessment, federal budget expenditures for January–February 2026 totaled 8,216 billion rubles, which is 5.8% higher than the prior-year figure. The monthly expenditure execution trajectory at the start of 2026 broadly follows the pattern observed at the start of last year, reflecting the prompt conclusion of contracts and advance payments on certain contracted expenditure items.

Overall, in 2026, the volume of federal budget expenditures will be determined by the ceiling on budget appropriations approved in the budget law and by any additional non-oil-and-gas revenues that may materialize during the year (in accordance with the fiscal rule provisions).

For January–February 2026, the federal budget recorded a deficit of 3,449 billion rubles, which is 1,032 billion rubles higher than the same period of the prior year. The elevated deficit figure at the start of the year is primarily attributable to front-loaded expenditure financing within the year and will not affect the achievement of the structural balance targets for 2026 as a whole.

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Federal Budget Execution for January–February 2026

*(Preliminary data)*

*Billions of rubles*

| | Jan–Feb 2026* | Jan–Feb 2025 | % y/y | Approved under Federal Law No. 426-FZ of 28 November 2025 | |---|---|---|---|---| | REVENUES | 4,767 | 5,347 | –10.8% | 40,283 | | OIL-AND-GAS REVENUES, *including:* | 826 | 1,560 | –47.1% | 8,919 | | *baseline oil-and-gas revenues* | *1,161* | *1,440* | *–19.4%* | *8,957* | | NON-OIL-AND-GAS REVENUES, *including:* | 3,942 | 3,787 | +4.1% | 31,365 | | *VAT (domestic production and imports)* | *2,237* | *2,019* | *+10.8%* | *17,519* | | EXPENDITURES | 8,216 | 7,764 | +5.8% | 44,070 | | DEFICIT *% of GDP* | –3,449 *–1.5%* | –2,416 *–1.1%* | –1,032 | –3,786 *–1.6%* |

*\* Revenues are presented inclusive of payments received into the Unified Tax Account (UTA) [Russia's consolidated tax payment account administered by the Federal Tax Service] that were attributed to the relevant federal budget revenue items as of 1 March 2026.*

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The parameters of the federal budget for 2026–2028 (Federal Law No. 426-FZ of 28 November 2025) ensure a primary structural balance in accordance with the fiscal rule. This, together with measures to reduce federal budget vulnerability, will contribute to strengthening the restraining effect of public sector operations on inflationary processes and, over the medium term, will support the sustainability and balance of the budget system and reinforce the macroeconomic and financial stability of the Russian Federation. This approach will create the necessary macroeconomic and financial foundation for achieving the national development goals defined by the President of the Russian Federation.

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[1] Final data are compiled on the basis of accounting reports submitted by budget revenue administrators, which capture transactions conducted outside the accounts of the Federal Treasury (including transactions carried out abroad).

[2] Revenues are presented inclusive of payments received into the Unified Tax Account (UTA) that were attributed to the relevant federal budget revenue items as of 1 March 2026.