Translation disclaimer: machine-assisted translation may contain inaccuracies. Always refer to the original source for authoritative text.
The rate of growth in household mortgage debt accelerated to 5% over the quarter, driven primarily by borrowers' rush to take out subsidized loans before the tightening of "Family Mortgage" [a state-subsidized mortgage program for families with children] conditions in February 2026. Annual mortgage growth on bank balance sheets came to approximately 11%, and the 2026 forecast remains in the range of 6–11%, reflecting the expected reduction in subsidized lending volumes following the program's revised terms.
The consumer loan portfolio contracted by 1.4% in the fourth quarter and by 4.6% over the full year. The consumer lending market is expected to recover in 2026, with the portfolio potentially growing by 4–9%.
Client funds increased by 11.9% over the year. In 2026, growth may slow to 5–10%, as investors are likely to show greater interest in securities, whose yields may exceed deposit rates.
Banks earned 3.5 trillion rubles over 2025, and profit for 2026 is projected at 3.3–3.8 trillion rubles, assuming continued elevated provisioning for corporate loans.
Further details are available in the quarterly Banking Sector review [a regular Central Bank of Russia (CBR) publication on the state of the Russian banking sector].