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Stress-testing under these scenarios will allow an assessment of the resilience of non-state pension funds (NPFs) [privately managed pension funds operating under CBR supervision] in the event of an adverse shift in the economic environment and the resulting reaction of the stock market. The scenarios also provide for a subsequent gradual recovery in government bond yields and a return of inflation to its target level.
The updated scenarios also incorporate assumptions for forecasting the value of yuan-denominated bonds and price dynamics for precious metals in bullion form, which were authorized for inclusion in pension reserve portfolios.
Following consultations with the self-regulatory organization [an industry association with regulatory functions under Russian law] representing NPFs, the updated scenarios account for a more prolonged period of elevated credit risks.
From September 2025, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) will publish stress-testing scenarios in advance. This improves the quality of risk assessment by market participants and makes the regulator's activities more predictable.
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